PETALING JAYA: Given the stellar sales performance by some local car companies recently, 2010 could be a record-breaking year for the Malaysian automotive industry, analysts and industry players predict.

OSK Research auto analyst Ahmad Maghfur Usman believes the total industry volume (TIV) this year could exceed the Malaysian Automotive Association’s (MAA) forecast of 550,000 units and even Malaysia’s all-time high of 552,316 units in 2005.

“MAA’s forecast of 550,000 units can be surpassed and TIV could reach a record high this year,” he said when contacted by StarBiz yesterday.

Earlier this week, Honda Malaysia Sdn Bhd and Perusahaan Otomobil Kedua Sdn Bhd (Perodua) announced that sales had hit record highs in March.

Honda sold 4,041 units while Perodua recorded a high of 18,500 units last month.

MAA president Datuk Aishah Ahmad said sales for most companies looked good in March.

“We will release the sales figures for March this or next week. Looking at the numbers, it’s going to be a record month,” she said when contacted.

Aishah, who said the MAA was not revising its 2010 forecast of 550,000 units, seemed cautiously optimistic that the estimate would be surpassed.

“We don’t want to speak too soon but we believe it can be exceeded. However, we are not adjusting (our forecast). For now it looks positive. But the local automotive industry is policy driven. Something could still come up and anything can happen.”
On whether TIV for 2010 could exceed 2005’s all-time high, she said: “It’s possible. This year could be the highest ever.”

In the luxury segment, a spokesman from BMW Malaysia Sdn Bhd said response for its newly launched BMW X1 sports utility vehicle (SUV) had been good.

“We ordered 40 vehicles and all have been taken up by our dealerships. Our dealers tell us that response for the vehicle has been encouraging,” he said.

The SUV is available in two variants and prices start from RM263,800. The spokesman said a main reason the X1 was popular was because it was competitively priced for its class.

Ahmad said the stellar sales performance in the first quarter of the year was within expectations.

“On the backdrop of a much improved economy and pent-up demand, it’s not surprising to see encouraging sales in the first quarter of the year.

“We believe this trend should continue until the first half of the year but for the second half, I’m a bit more cautious,” he said.

He said if the Government were to decide to impose the fuel subsidy scheme (which has since been shelved), sales of vehicles in the country could be affected.

Frost & Sullivan partner and automotive and transportation practice head for Asia Pacific Kavan Mukhtyar also concurred that pent-up demand and improved economy had boosted TIV in the first quarter.

“Finance and approval rates have been stable and there is a ‘feel-good’ factor among consumers so spending has gone up. The momentum started to pick in the third quarter of last year and we feel it will start moderating towards the end of 2010.”

Kavan said Frost & Sullivan was maintaining its 2010 TIV forecast of 555,000 units.

“We believe TIV for this year can exceed that of 2005, albeit by a small margin”